This Newsletter will come at a basic economic problem from a
couple of different angles. The Author
Rob hits this topic often and there is a relationship, albeit tenuous. Here is
the paradox in question form:
How does
the nation (and this region) attract and retain skilled labor and professionals
while planning for a future that will need far less labor?
The Author Rob has addressed this topic several times, such
as https://desertoftherealeconomicsanalysis.blogspot.com/2017/07/danger-will-robinson.html,
https://desertoftherealeconomicsanalysis.blogspot.com/2017/06/has-god-really-been-good-to-indian.html
The nature of work, and the lack of it, will be significant
issues in the coming decades. AI and the Robot Revolution will displace many workers.
AI is displacing professional workers, such as lawyers and investment analysts.
Robots on the factory floor displace labor. And the fast food and the
healthcare industry are the next targets for AI and robotics.
But the topic is as much as matching up the skills required
for the future with the higher paying jobs that will exist. On the one hand (as
two-handed economists are given to saying), robotics requires trained
technicians and engineers. But one the other hand, the work force in great
supply are untrained young people, many which cannot even pass drug tests. Here
in Northern Indiana, nearly every factory has a help-wanted sign. Restaurants
and convenience stores are begging for help. Some places have to close early because of a
lack of help.
HOW CAN WE BE PROACTIVE?
A recent commentary in the Indiana Economic Digest presents
the issues well. In an article entitled “These projects can keep Wells County in 'the game' - if it wants,”
written by Mark Miller, the issue is both raising the quality of life in
Northeast Indiana and providing the skilled work force. Miller describes some
community improvements the cities of Bluffton and Decatur are making to their
downtown areas. Along with these
improvements will come other efforts at attracting new people into the area?
Miller states that the 11-county Northeast Indiana currently has 800,000 people
and the goal is to grow to one million by 2031. And not to be snarky, but will
the people coming in be the “right people.”
The region
needs skilled workers that want to live in Northeast Indiana. And it wants the
newcomers to enjoy living in Northeast Indiana because of the area’s quality of
life. A tough task. A very tough task.
Northeast
Indiana is not the Mississippi Delta or the Ozarks, but it is not Santa Clara
County, California. Miller presents the issue as “quality of place.”
Miller states
that many younger workers, and mid-career workers are relocating to the place
they wish to live. You move where you want to live and the work will appear.
And with more work moving online, co-location is very possible.
The Author
Rob cannot but see this draw of “Quality of Place” as almost impossible. Fort
Wayne is a generally nice small city, but it is not Austin Texas. Northeast
Indiana has a good number of small lakes, but it is not Cape Cod.
These high
identity projects such as the one in Bluffton and Decatur generate activity and
civic pride, but can these one-offs bring in a meaningful number of skilled
technicians, professionals and other high tech workers? The Author Rob doubts
it.
Many
communities and Ivy Tech recognize the need for training workers for the
existing and promised jobs. The apprentice model, very common in Europe, but
almost abandoned in America, trains people in skilled trades. Employers
contribute much of the funding in these apprentice models.
But in recent
years, the training has been commoditized and taught at community colleges and
the proprietary colleges. This shifts
the cost to the students in the form of student loans, and ultimately some of
it to the taxpayers when students with worthless degrees from unscrupulous
college default.
In an ideal
world, workers would be happily employed in meaningful work. The Star Trek
utopia. Perhaps were are only setting ourselves up for the Blade Runner
Dystopia.
LET THE
ROBOTS TAKE THE HINDMOST IN THE DESERT OF THE REAL!
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